Another exciting year in real estate is ahead of us.  It’s old news that the market is no longer in favor of sellers, but rather more of what experts call a “balanced market”, but will that trend continue, especially if interest rates continue to slide downwards?  As our team works with a lot of buyers considering a move to the area, we are seeing more activity than in years past of buyers looking to relocate here.  Lower rates, more influx of relocators, and tight inventory could push the market back in favor of the sellers, but only time will tell.  Here’s what’s moving the market right now and what it means for your next real estate move.

The charts above, created by Boise Regional Realtors, show the stats on all sales in Ada and Canyon County, including new construction, single-family resale homes, townhomes, and condos.  Below is a breakdown of homes by area, single-family vs townhomes and condos and a look at new construction.

Ada County Market Trends

Looking back at 2025, single-family home prices slightly dipped by 0.9% compared to this time last year, 2024; however, if we look at the entire year of sales, we actually saw an increase in value of just shy of 2.5%.

The average days on market for all of 2025 was 40 days.  About where it was last year, however, in December and January, we saw an average of 50 days on market.  This is common during the holiday season to have longer days on the market.

From the data, we’re seeing certain submarkets stand out:

• Boise continues to move faster than anywhere else, especially older homes under the median price point.

• Boise’s North, NE, NW, SE, and Bench had more homes sell at the asking price or even over asking price compared to other areas.  These are popular areas around the Valley due to their proximity to the Greenbelt, BSU Campus, Downtown, and overall vibe.

• Garden City, we definitely saw an increase in what buyers were willing to pay for homes compared to past months.  This is becoming a popular area, and one to keep an eye on.

This chart compares the net sold price after closing cost contributions to the original list price, broken down by area. In simple terms, it highlights where sellers are still holding pricing power and where buyers are negotiating more aggressively.

Core Boise neighborhoods and close-in areas continue to show the strongest pricing resilience. North Boise, The Bench, and Garden City have a higher share of homes selling at or near the original price, even after concessions are factored in. These markets tend to have more limited inventory, fewer large-scale new construction projects, and buyers who are willing to meet pricing expectations to secure a home in a desirable location.

By contrast, areas such as Meridian, Kuna, and South Boise show a higher percentage of homes selling below the original price after concessions. This softness could be influenced by the new construction subdivisions in these markets. Builders often adjust pricing, offer closing cost incentives, or include upgrades to remain competitive and keep absorption moving, which can pull overall net prices down in the data. Additionally, in Meridian and South Boise, we did have an uptick last Fall of starter homes on the market and fewer buyers in those areas.

Other Ada County Market Trends (2025)

• 8,783 single-family homes sold in 2025.
• Median original list price: $549,900
• Median net sold price (after concessions): $540,000
• Townhomes and Condos:  911 sold in 2025.  Avg DOM 45, and the median sold price was $415,000 (not taking into consideration the seller concessions offered to the buyers).
• New Construction:  Median sold price was $552,495, about where it was last year, but 62 is how many days on market it took to sell.
• Financing:  Nearly 58% of homes are still selling with conventional loans, which tells us that traditional, well-qualified buyers continue to dominate the market. Cash remains strong at just over 23%, reinforcing that investors and equity-rich buyers are still very active, especially in competitive or desirable areas. FHA and VA combined make up just under 18% of sales, which is important context when discussing affordability and concessions. These buyers are present and successful, but they tend to benefit most in areas with new construction or higher inventory, where sellers and builders are more flexible.

Seller-Focused Takeaway

For sellers in established Boise neighborhoods, the data supports confident but thoughtful pricing. Homes that are well-prepared and positioned correctly are still selling close to the original list price, and in some cases above, even after concessions. Buyer demand in these areas remains strong, particularly for homes with good location, condition, and long-term appeal. In markets with significant new construction, sellers need to be especially strategic. Competing with builder incentives means pricing accurately from the start and understanding how concessions affect net value. Sellers who align closely with current market conditions are far more likely to attract serious buyers and avoid prolonged time on the market.

Buyer-Focused Takeaway

For buyers, this data helps identify where leverage exists. Meridian, Kuna, and South Boise currently offer more flexibility, largely due to builder competition and higher inventory levels. Buyers may find opportunities to negotiate on price, closing costs, or upgrades, particularly with new construction or resale homes competing with it. In Boise’s core neighborhoods, buyers should still expect tighter conditions. Discounts are less common, and well-priced homes often move quickly. Preparation, strong financing, and a clear understanding of value remain key to success in these areas.

Canyon County Market Overview (2025)

• 4,597 single-family homes sold.  

• Median original list price for all homes including new construction: $419,000 and increase of 6.4% from 2024.

• Median net sold price Single-Family Homes  (after concessions): $412,000

• Average days on market: 48 days

• Financing:  18% sold with cash, and 45% with conventional financing, and 37% with a VA, FHA or other type of financing.

• Townhouse/Condo:  55 Townhomes and condos sold in 36 DOM for a median sold price of $314,000.

Canyon County remains more affordable, but concessions are more significant here than in Ada. Homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers are negotiating harder. Sellers who price realistically upfront are seeing the strongest results.

Over 80% of the homes sold so far this year sold under the list price, and that includes concessions.  With that said, there are more new construction incentives going on in Canyon County compared to Ada County, and that could be contributing to the high percentage of homes selling under the original list price.

Canyon County Seller Takeaway

Sellers in Canyon County should approach the market with realistic pricing and a clear strategy. When factoring in closing cost contributions, more than 80% of homes are selling below the original asking price, which means buyers are expecting value and flexibility. Overpricing, even modestly, tends to result in longer time on market and larger concessions later. That said, homes that are well-prepared, competitively priced from the start, and positioned correctly are still selling. Areas like Middleton and Wilder are showing slightly stronger performance, with a higher share of homes selling closer to the asking price. Sellers who understand their competition, especially from new construction, and who price accordingly, are seeing the best results.

Canyon County Buyer Takeaway

Canyon County continues to offer strong negotiating opportunities for buyers. With the majority of homes selling below original price after concessions, buyers often have room to negotiate on price, closing costs, or terms, particularly in Nampa, Caldwell, and Melba.

This is especially true when competing with new construction, where builders frequently adjust pricing or offer incentives to move inventory. Buyers using FHA, VA, or other low down payment financing, which are common in Canyon County, may find favorable conditions as sellers and builders remain flexible. Preparation and local market knowledge remain key to identifying the best opportunities.

According to a recent article on Realtor.com regarding growth in our area, we expect a substantial number of buyers to enter our market.  “Analysis of data from the 2024 census shows that the population, currently at about 2 million residents, will hit 2.4 million by 2034. By 2034, “our growth rate is expected to be about four times as fast as the rest of the nation,” Idaho Department of Labor Economist Sam Wolkenhauer said at a recent webinar, as reported by Boise State Public Radio.

Southwestern Idaho is expected to account for the bulk of the increase, according to Wolkenhauer, but growth is happening across the state.”

Buyers: While Ada County shows stronger pricing resilience in core neighborhoods, Canyon County is firmly in a buyer-friendly phase, driven by affordability, inventory, and new construction.

Final Market Takeaway

Stepping back and looking at the Treasure Valley as a whole, we’re seeing early but meaningful signs of momentum returning to the market. After interviewing several top-producing agents across the Valley, including our own team, there is a clear uptick in buyer activity. Homes that are well-priced and well-presented are increasingly selling within a weekend, and multiple-offer situations are becoming more common than they have been over the past couple of years. While pricing discipline and strategy still matter, buyer confidence is improving, and the market is showing signs of renewed energy heading into the second half of the year.

Talk to a Top Boise Real Estate Agent

In a fluctuating market, it’s essential to consult a Boise real estate expert who deeply understands local dynamics. Online opinions and advice from acquaintances may be well-intentioned, but can lead to costly mistakes. For personalized guidance on navigating Boise and the wider Treasure Valley market, consider scheduling a consultation with Jennifer Louis, your Boise Metro Area Real Estate Expert. Contact me at (208) 509-9122 or via email at [email protected]. 

If you’re planning to buy or sell a home in 2026, understanding how homes really performed this past year in Boise and the surrounding area is invaluable. After analyzing more than 8,000 closed sales from the MLS 2025 in Ada County (Boise, Meridian, Star, Eagle, Kuna), including their original asking prices and the true net sold prices after concessions, we’re finally able to see which homes sold above asking, which sold below, and which types held the most value.

The results may surprise you of which Boise homes sell high and fast, and those that don’t.

Most Ada County Homes Sold Below the Original Asking Price (But November Was Even Softer)

Across the full year:

• 71.44% sold below the original asking price

• 15.47% sold at the original price

• 13.09% sold above original list price

But in November alone:

• 77.43% sold below original list price

• Only 9.57% sold above the original list price

Below is a breakdown of how homes sold by area in Ada County—whether they closed above the original asking price, at the original list price, or below it. (All figures include closing cost concessions to reflect true net pricing.)

Which Areas Performed Best (and Worst) in 2025?

Ada County isn’t one market—it’s dozens of micro-markets. And when we look at how often homes sold above, at, or below the original asking price, the differences are striking.

Strongest Areas (More Above-Ask Sales):

• Boise NE – 27.85% above

• Boise North – 25.08% above

• Boise Bench – 22.68% above

These areas show resilient buyer demand, stronger pricing power, and more consistent competition throughout the year.

Softest Areas (High Below-Ask Rates):

• Kuna – 83.24% below

• Star – 78.82% below

• Boise SW / Meridian corridor – 77–79% below

These markets tend to have higher inventory levels, more new construction, and buyers who negotiate more aggressively.

It’s also worth noting that the Boise Bench, North Boise, SE Boise, and Garden City outperformed many other areas, with a higher percentage of homes closing at or above asking price compared to the rest of the county. Meanwhile, Kuna remained the most price-sensitive, likely due to increased competition from new-build communities offering price drops and promotions—especially toward the end of the year.

In November, nearly all areas softened further, including Eagle, North Boise, and SE Boise—the same neighborhoods that led performance for most of 2025. This is typical for Ada County: late fall and early winter often shift negotiating power toward buyers due to colder weather, slower buyer activity, and the holiday season. The market generally stays soft until late January, with activity rising again in February as new listings hit the market and more buyers re-enter.

What Types of Homes Sold Best? (By Size)

Some clear patterns emerged:

Best-performing home sizes (homes that sold at or above the original list price):

• Under 1200 SqFt

• Over 4000 SqFt

Smaller homes appeal to first-time buyers and investors. Large luxury homes attract decisive move-up buyers.

Most price-sensitive homes:

• 1600–2499 SqFt homes
  These represented the highest number of “below original price” sales—over 73% of the time.

In November, this segment softened even more, with fewer over-ask sales and deeper concessions.

Takeaway for sellers: If you own a typical 3–4 bedroom family home, pricing strategy and presentation matter more than ever.

Other Ada County Market Trends (Jan–November 2025)

• 8,106 single-family homes sold year to date. 800 homes in November (resale and new construction combined)
• Median original list price: $550,000
• Median net sold price (after concessions): $544,972
• Average days on market DOM: 39 days
• Townhomes and Condos:  833 sold year-to-date.  Avg DOM 35, and the median sold price was $414,000, not including concessions.
• Financing:  24% of the sales were sold for cash, 57% with conventional financing, and 21% with VA, FHA, or other financing.

What Trends Should Buyers and Sellers Expect in 2026?

For Buyers

• January–March will remain the best negotiation window.

• Spring will increase competition, but not dramatically.

• Mid-sized homes and Meridian/Kuna will continue offering the strongest leverage.

For Sellers

• Accurate pricing—not “aspirational pricing”- will determine your net.

• Homes in Boise NE, North Boise, SE Boise, and the Bench are positioned to perform best.

• New construction will continue to impact resale pricing in the Meridian/Kuna corridor.

Overall Market Expectation

A balanced, steady 2026—not a downturn, and not a runaway seller’s market.

Talk to a Top Boise Real Estate Agent

In a fluctuating market, it’s essential to consult a Boise real estate expert who deeply understands local dynamics. Online opinions and advice from acquaintances may be well-intentioned, but can lead to costly mistakes. For personalized guidance on navigating Boise and the wider Treasure Valley market, consider scheduling a consultation with Jennifer Louis, your Boise Metro Area Real Estate Expert. Contact me at (208) 509-9122 or via email at [email protected].