It’s feeling cold out there lately, and it’s not due to the weather.  Boise Metro Real Estate has really cooled and everyone is feeling the chill.  Boise’s real estate market has really shifted from the hyper-inflated, red hot market we’ve all become accustomed to and has quickly moved to a more volatile market where both buyers and sellers seem lost on how to best move forward.

Let’s Look At The Data

Year to Date Ada County has seen over an 11% increase in single-family home values from one year ago. Yet, Days on the Market have increased.  Homes in Ada County are staying on the market roughly 21 days before going pending, compared to just 13 this time last year.  Additionally, in July 2021 there were approximately 2000 single-family homes for sale and if we look at this year in July there were 3,200 homes for sale.  A big jump in inventory.

Canyon County has experienced similar data.  A nearly 7% increase in sold prices since last year. Days on Market increased from 10 in July 2021 to 25 days on average before going pending last month. Canyon County had a 43% increase in the number of homes for sale in July of this year compared to one year ago.

With a significant increase in inventory, buyers are taking their time, and homes are staying on the market much longer than in past months and years. With buyers pulling back, due to higher interest rates as well as apprehension, coupled with an increase in the number of homes for sale the market has started to really shift.

Unfortunately, headlines are feeding into buyer apprehension.  Yes, the market has shifted, but some buyers in need of a home are holding out, expecting the bottom of the market to drop out due to negative articles featuring Boise as one of the most overpriced markets in the US.  It appears that some buyers are expecting home prices to come down dramatically. However, the data is showing a correction, not a crash.

With the buying frenzy we’ve witnessed over the past nearly 10 years sellers are struggling to understand that they need to price their homes in line with the market.  A recent article by Fortune Magazine said that “Historically speaking, home prices remain sticky until economics forces sellers’ hand.”  As the end of the rise in interest rates remains elusive, where prices will ultimately end up over the next months remains “sticky”.  Corelogic predicts that Boise is one of the markets due for a pricing correction, but many Sellers’ are struggling to follow suit. As sellers’ have continued to push the prices higher and interest rates continued to rise, sellers have been forced to drop prices back to fair market value.  In past years each month home prices continued to increase, as that has not been the case the past few months, sellers who aggressively priced high have also had to aggressively price drop to find the market where the buyers are purchasing.  

With that said it’s important to note that there is still a supply issue in the Boise Metro Area.  As of July 2022, we have roughly a three-month supply of homes for sale.  Sounds great, but a balanced market, in favor of neither the buyer nor seller is six months of inventory.  We’re not quite there yet and most likely won’t get there for some time.  Home prices most likely won’t go up like in past years, but they won’t be coming down much on price either.  Simple economics of supply and demand will continue to push Boise’s market upwards.

In Ada County in July, 671 single-family homes were sold, and this includes new construction and existing homes.  More than half sold under the asking price. In Canyon County 389 single-family new construction and existing homes were sold.  More homes sold under and at the asking price than over.  This is a big change from one year ago.  Additionally, the days on the market have increased in both Ada and Canyon County compared to the same time last year.

What to Expect Moving Forward

Is it a good time to buy a home in Boise?

This is the first time in years that buyers are having the ability to negotiate with sellers as well as take a little more time in viewing homes, sometimes even two or three times before putting in an offer.  Interest rates are higher if a buyer is financing their purchase, however, many sellers are offering or may be willing to offer cash to buy down mortgage points to allow buyers to lock in a lower interest rate.  The interest rates will most likely go down in 2023 and home prices will start to trickle upwards, making purchasing a home more competitive.  Now, buyers have more purchase power, and is a great time to get into a home and start building equity.

It is also important to remember Idaho is a non-disclosure state, meaning sold prices are not published to the public, so Zillow and other online resources that provide Zestimates or home value estimates are inaccurate and in this volatile market, this is true more than ever.  Hiring a real estate agent that understands the market is imperative to understanding a home’s current value and making the right offer.

When should I sell my home?

It may not seem like it, but we are still technically in a Seller’s Market.  There are just three months of inventory meaning we have more buyers than homes for sale.  If selling during 2022 it is imperative to price the home correctly.  Over asking price offers and multiple offers have become less frequent, so understanding what buyers are willing to pay right now is key.  Also, sellers should expect their homes to stay on the market longer than in past months.

Having a turn-key ready home tends to attract more buyers, so if considering selling, now is the time to get the home market ready.  2023 should start to level out for sellers and things may pick up.  If you are considering selling now or even next year, start working with your real estate professional sooner than later.  They can help you to know what improvements to make to your home and how to get it market-ready.  Hire a real estate agent that knows your market.

Here’s the snapshot of Median Home prices as of July 2022

Median Sold Price July (includes new and existing homes)

Nampa: 193 home sales $438,000

Middleton: 28 home sales $507,000

Caldwell: 96home sales $425,000

If you are considering buying or selling a home in the Boise Metro Area please contact Real Estate Expert, Jennifer Louis at (208) 509-9122 or jennlouis@welcometoboiseandbeyond.com

For the first time in years we are seeing a shift in local real estate.  To understand what that means all you have to do is type “Boise” in any search engine and prepare to be flooded with articles and videos talking about the dark cloud hanging over Boise’s real estate market.  Take these recent headlines:

Boise May Be Center of Real Estate Collapse – 247wallst.com – May 2022

The real estate frenzy is over – Axios – May 2022

Wages Can’t Keep Up with Spike in Housing Prices – The New York Times – May 2022

Housing Market Fever Starts to Break in Boise – The Washington Post – April 2022

Boise Housing Market More Likely to Self Correct than Crash – Home Buying Institute – May 2022

It seems all eyes are on Boise and how the real estate market will respond to the continuous increase in home prices coupled with rising interest rates.  From the articles above, it doesn’t seem many are optimistic that the real estate boom we’ve experienced the past several years will continue, but is that the case?

Let’s Look At The Data

Year to Date Ada County has seen over a 16% increase in home values from one year ago.  Canyon County has experienced a nearly 13% increase since last year.  Mortgage rates are increasing, and homes are becoming unaffordable, so what is driving this increase?  It’s the same story we’ve heard over the past years and months, low inventory, and high demand.  The majority of the demand is coming from out-of-state buyers, looking to cash out on their equity and invest in “more affordable” markets.

Boise keeps making headlines as unaffordable, yet for those coming from California, the Seattle area, New York, and other large metropolitan areas across the US, Boise’s median home price of just under $600K is still appealing.  Yet, many local homeowners are holding on to their homes due to fear of what they can afford if they move, and with limited homes on the market, and builders not able to meet demand, the inventory remains low low low, driving up prices.

This trend, however, can’t continue.  As other markets around the US soften, and it becomes harder for homeowners to sell their homes, the demand here will start to die down.  We are starting to see signs of this in some areas of the market already.  Homes priced over the median price of $600,000 in Ada County have  already being impacted. The same for Canyon County.  Homes are sitting longer on the market and multiple offers and bidding wars in this price range are becoming less frequent.

Here are the charts showing how homes are selling in May 2022.

In Ada County in May, 872 single-family homes were sold, and more than half sold under or at the asking price, In Canyon County there 454 single-family homes were sold.  More homes sold under and at the asking price than over.  This is a big change from one year ago.  Additionally, the days on the market have increased in both Ada and Canyon County compared to the same time last year.

What to Expect Moving Forward

So to sum it up we can expect demand for housing to start cooling in the second half of 2022, however, a crash is unlikely and home prices will most likely flatten and homes will sit longer on the market than in the past.

Is it a good time to buy a home in Boise?

As more homeowners rush to get their homes sold, buyers will start to see more choices when home shopping, however, they shouldn’t expect home prices to come down dramatically, if at all.   Buyers should be aware that searching for homes at the median sales price or lower is where it is the most competitive.  Buyers will need to carefully assess how to make their offers stand out against other offers.  Hiring a real estate agent that understands the market and the areas of interest is imperative to getting their offer accepted.

When should I sell my home?

We are still in a seller’s market making it an excellent time to cash out that equity while the market is still in favor of the sellers and while buyers are still looking for their next home.  Sellers should expect that their home may sit longer on the market than in previous years and that buyers paying top dollar are less likely to buy a home “as is”, meaning they will want the home in top shape before purchasing.  Pricing the home correctly is imperative to attract multiple buyers and get the best offer.  Hire a real estate agent that knows your market.

Here’s the snapshot of Median Home prices as of May 2022

Median Sold Price

Nampa: 354 home sales $449,500

Middleton: 71 home sales $545,000

Caldwell: 175 home sales $420,000

If you are considering buying or selling a home in the Boise Metro Area please contact Real Estate Expert, Jennifer Louis at (208) 509-9122 or jennlouis@welcometoboiseandbeyond.com

Let’s Look At The Data

To some extent the decrease in inventory and pricing should not come as a surprise as this is a common trend during Fall and Winter in the area, however, in 2019 and 2020 we saw home prices continue to go up even during the seasonal slowdown.  Observing the past couple years of unusual trends, many home sellers anticipated the same would happen in 2021 and priced their homes accordingly.  Yet, this year as the Fall approached home prices suddenly started to become less affordable to many of the buyers, hence the affordability wall that is facing many buyers today.

In Ada County in October, 980 single-family homes were sold, and just over half sold for under asking price, The homes that sold under asking price averaged an original list price of $608,000 or 14% over the current median home price.  These homes ended up dropping their prices, or accepting offers around an average of 7% lower than their asking price.

The homes that sold over the asking price averaged a list price of $593,000 and sold 4% over the original list price.

When analyzing the two categories,  homes with an asking price of over $600,000 in many cases sat much longer on the market and either reduced their price or accepted a lower than asking price on their home. On the other hand, the homes selling at the median price of $533,950 or lower, especially turnkey and in desirable neighborhoods many received multiple offers and a sales prices over the asking price.  Here are the charts comparing sales price in October compared to two months earlier.

What to Expect Moving Forward

Does this mean this downward price trend will continue?  Most likely not.  Yes, home prices aren’t rising exponentially as we’ve seen earlier this year and over the past several years, but we are still in a major home inventory supply shortage.  Even with the increase in home prices, there are still substantially more buyers looking to purchase a home, than there are homes to buy.

We can expect with the current demand for housing still being high and inventory still low that home prices will slowly continue to rise in 2022.  However, there are more homeowners now that are frightened we’ve reached the peak of the market and will most likely be listing their homes in Spring and Summer 2022 which will increase the inventory and keep prices from shooting up like the past few years.

Home prices will increase in 2022, but nowhere near like we’ve seen in past years.

How much inventory does Boise Metro Have?

Another factor impacting Boise homes selling below list price is the increase in inventory.  In October 2021 we had 1,145 homes for sale compared to 448 the year before.  At present we have about a 1.4 month supply of inventory, which is substantially better than past years, but still lags behind where we need to be for a balanced market.  A better way to explain this is that for a balanced market, one that favors the buyers and sellers equally we would need roughly 4,600 homes on the market.  With our current inventory, it is clear we are not there yet, however, the increase in inventory recently has played a role in impacting how much pricing has flattened lately.

Boise Metro Area had 1,145 homes for sale in October.  It needs roughly 4,600 homes on the market to be considered a balanced market.

Here’s a chart from the Boise Regional Realtors demonstrating the market statistics compared to 2020.

Is it a good time to buy a home in Boise?

2022 should be a very interesting year for Buyers as we can expect more homes to enter the market in Spring and Summer.  If the mortgage interest rates stay low as they have been and with more inventory, buyers will have an increased opportunity of finding a home in the Boise area.  However, don’t expect home prices to come down, but to gradually push upwards.  This is great news if buying, meaning that Buyers can still start building equity from the moment they purchase a home here in the Treasure Valley.  But Buyers should be aware that searching for homes at the median sales price or lower there will most likely be competition.  Buyers will need to carefully assess how to make their offers stand out against other offers.  Hiring a real estate agent that understands the market and the areas of interest is imperative to getting their offer accepted.

When should I sell my home?

We are still in a seller’s market making it an excellent time to cash out that equity while the market is still hot and buyers are still looking for their next home.  Sellers should expect that their home may sit longer on the market than in previous years and that buyers paying top dollar are less likely to buy a home “as is”, meaning they will want the home in top shape before purchasing.  Pricing the home correctly is imperative to attract multiple buyers and get the best offer.  Hire a real estate agent that knows your market, not a call center budget real estate firm to help you get your home ready to stand out against the competition and get you the best price and terms for your most important asset.

Here’s the snapshot of Median Home prices as of October 2021

Median Sold Price

Boise: 492 home sales – $488,880

Meridian: 270 home sales  $511,000

Kuna: 109 home sales –  $448,000

Eagle: 95 home sales –   $851,500

Star: 63 home sales –       $563,000

If you are considering buying or selling a home in the Boise Metro Area please contact  Real Estate Expert, Jennifer Louis at (208) 509-9122 or jennlouis@welcometoboiseandbeyond.com

Boise area home prices have recently dipped in many neighborhoods, and homes are sitting longer on the market than we’ve seen in the past year.  Do these changes point towards a new real estate market in the Treasure Valley or is there another explanation?  Let’s examine the recent facts and trends.

Why so many price drops?

Historically in residential real estate in the Treasure Valley during Fall, we see home prices start to go down until Spring.  In 2020 we didn’t have the same seasonality change from previous years so the recent seasonal dip we are experiencing may have caught many off guard.  Additionally, towards the end of this Summer, many of the larger builders released a lot of their homes, dropping prices and offering promos which increased the overall inventory of homes for sale in the Valley.  This was a major contributor to the price drops we saw.  For example in Ada County in January-July 60% of the single-family homes sold over asking price and only 16% under the list price.  Compare that to August and September where 35% of homes sold over the asking price and 37% sold below the list price.  That’s a big shift.  The same happened in Canyon County. From Jan-July only 19% of home sales sold below asking price and that jumped to 31% in Aug-Sept.  Below is the chart showing how much homes dipped over the past two months compared with earlier in the year to give you a clear idea.

Another factor is the affordability wall that the Boise Metro Area has hit.  Ada County’s median home price last month was over $530,000 and Canyon County hit a record $422,000 in September.  Homes priced above the median price are seeing the most price drops and sitting longer than other homes in the same area.

For most first-time homebuyers the dramatic increase in prices in 2020-2021 has priced them out of the market.  What this means is with fewer buyers, and more inventory we have seen a slight drop in home prices and an increase in the time homes stay on the market before selling.

Ada County homes in Aug-Sept spent  an avg 14 Days on Market compared to 11 in January-July.

Canyon County homes in Aug-Sept spent an avg 13 DOM compared to 9 from Jan-July of this year.

How much inventory does Boise Metro Have?

It’s important to note that even with the increase in inventory we saw in the past few months, we are still nowhere near where we need to be in order to be considered a balanced market (six months of inventory).  In fact, we only have about six weeks of inventory available in both Ada and Canyon County.  This is nearly a month increase from a year ago at this time, but still far from what is needed comparing to the demand.  To explain it differently, in September we had 1,249 homes available for sale, in order for it to be balanced, we would need to have nearly triple that number available.  Check out the stats produced by Boise Regional Realtors giving a 2020/2021 comparison in the inventory shift we’re witnessing.

What can we expect in 2022?

Supply and demand will continue to spur the price increases in the Valley.  We can expect that home prices will remain relatively flat until Spring of 2022 and then as more buyers enter the market we will start to see prices increase.  By how much?  A lot of that depends on how many buyers there are.  However as we stated earlier we have hit a price wall for many first-time home buyers, and if mortgage interest rates were to increase we can expect fewer buyers in the mix next year compared to the past year. Fewer buyers mean higher supply and although home prices will continue to increase, we can expect less dramatic increases than we’ve seen the past few years.  With that said homes may stay on the market longer than we are used to.  Instead of 7 Days on Market, we may see that number double.  This also may mean fewer bidding wars taking a bit more of the selling power away from Sellers that they have come accustomed to.

Is it a good time to buy a home in Boise?

Buyers, this is an excellent time to invest in real estate in the area.  As this article showed Boise home prices have dipped and led to a bit more inventory to choose from compared to the past.  This along with low-interest rates means buyers are able to get into a home with a bit more ease than we’ve previously seen.  The facts and trends area all showing that home values will continue to increase due to supply and demand which means investing now will equal quick equity in a home.

When should I sell my home?

We are still very much in a seller’s market and homes prepped, staged, and priced correctly are still selling relatively quickly and for record pricing.  It’s imperative to hire the right real estate agent to sell your home.  You may be tempted to use a budget real estate service, or someone you know, but in Southern Idaho’s unusual, fast-paced real estate market hiring an expert who knows, understands your home and area is key to getting you the best price and terms on your sale.

Here’s the snapshot of Median Home prices as of September 2021

Median Sold Price

Boise: $546,000

Meridian: $545,000

Kuna: $436,000

Eagle: $765,000

Star: $543,000

If you are considering buying or selling a home in the Boise Metro Area please contact  Real Estate Expert, Jennifer Louis at (208) 509-9122 or jennlouis@welcometoboiseandbeyond.com